Wednesday, February 16, 2005


Jerome has an interesting post and internets poll results for potential Republican candidates in '08.

My take:

I doubt Rice's juice will last. She doesn't hold up well under the glare of unfriendly questions and attention. And she's got three years to go before the administration's foreign policy positions will have to stand up to opponent's attacks, something that could be especially difficult if troops are still in Iraq and the administration is making noice about invading Syria or Iran, if it hasn't already done so.

I can't see either Guiliani or McCain getting the nomination.

I don't see anybody else on the R side having the electoral upside of Jeb! He's a governor. And while much has been made of the difficult electoral college Democrats face, the fact is Republicans have to win Ohio and Florida to win the EC. As the current governor of FL, Jeb! gives them the best chance to do that. But then again there is likely to be some Bush-name fatigue which if Jeb! gets the nomination, could help us.

Overall, I have a hard time seeing anybody but Jeb! getting the R nomination in '08.


Mark Warner and Evan Bayh have gotten some play. I've heard Biden's name out there. Edwards has launched a poverty center at UNC and already made a trip to NH to keep his name in the mix.

I doubt Kerry will run. He has a better record in the Senate than his campaign chose to amplify, but even though he finished well for someone challenging an incumbent, he didn't inspire much confidence other than his supposed ability to win. Gore's name hasn't been out there much. While the common feeling maybe that Gore had his chance, his spirited denunctiations of Bush's policies last year makes him an intriguing choice should he throw his hat in the ring.

I have a hard time seeing Hilary making the run. And I have a hard time imagining her not running. I'd accept her, of course, if she ran and won the nomination, but I don't favor her. While Republicans will attempt to crucify whoever the Dem nominee is, Hilary would give them a lot more amunition than anyone else, and although I appreciate Bill Clinton's contributions to the party, I'd prefer to see a non-Clinton get the nomination and thus give the party a different face and set of policy approaches. If there is another Bush-Clinton election I think I'd go crazy.

No comments: