Friday, October 17, 2008

Obama will still win

I'm going to go out on a limb here, even after watching the sad spectacle that is cable teevee "news" and state I still think Obama will win. I just think the zeitgeist, the public mood, has changed, that a majority of the public recognizes the sad state of affairs in the country, and accurately knows who is to blame. Meanwhile, while the media still laps up it up, the standard right-wing attacks don't pack the same sting as in other years. I also think Obama has ridden enough of a wave here of where expectations are of his winning, and in most election cycles, that's how these things tend to play out; the candidate who is seen as being ahead for much of the race, ends up winning. 1992 was like that. Same with 1996 and even 2000, where w lead throughout much of the race. Ditto 2004.

One other thing. I think the national polls are still the key. Obviously a 49%-49% race means it will come down to a few key states. But if the spread is even 51%-49%, the electoral college will mostly likely reflect that. At the same time, with O ahead by increasingly consistent and comfortable margins in states like Colorado, Virginia, and now even Missouri, I think there's still reason to feel good. Kerry was never in this good a position four years ago. I think the winds of change are still blowing.

2 comments:

shoffy22 said...

Indeed, it might be time to call up The Scorpions soon. The Winds of Change are strong!

Steve Gimbel said...

The Scorpions! Shoffy is the man.

I think you are right. The debates made it clear to pretty much everyone in the world that Obama is not the scary, terrorist-coddling, naive, America-hating Muslim that the McCain people/RNC/Andy Martin e-mail forwarding crowd made him out to be. The cries of "socialist" and such will not resonate with the soft center or the undecided.

It seems to be a ploy to keep the base and turn them out in places like "real" Virginia, West Virginia, North Carolina, Georgia, Indiana, and other "pro-American" regions. Before the McCain people can think about 270 electoral college votes, they need to nail down 200, and this tactic seems aimed at that. At that point, they can then hope for a self-destruct moment from Obama or Biden or try a(nother) Hail Mary of their own devise.